Rondeli Foundation continues to review the long-term consequences of the Second Karabakh War (2020) in the context of regional security.
After the election of a new president, Iran seems to have decided to play a more active role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan confrontation. The situation escalated to such an extent that Iran launched mass military exercises along the Azerbaijani border, in response Azerbaijan and Turkey also held exercises. The tensions have eased temporarily, though Iran has unequivocally declared that it does not intends to remain a passive observer.
Will Iran be able to use its religious ties with Azerbaijan and turn Azerbaijani Shiites into an instrument of its influence? This threat has not gone unnoticed by Azerbaijan, and it has taken active measures against Shiite organizations whose loyalty is in doubt.
The 3 + 3 format is another new formula emerged after the Karabakh war, which caused a sharp difference of opinion in the region. The Georgian political class has firmly rejected the idea, recognizing in it an attempt to expel the West from the region. What is the essence of 3 + 3 in reality and what is unacceptable for Georgia? You will read an interesting review on this matter at the end of the publication.